Bet Sizing: How Much to Risk on Each Leveraged Bet
Short version: Leverage decides how fast a bet can lose; bet size decides whether a losing streak can wipe you out. Risking 20% of your budget per bet makes a wipe-out very likely within 100 bets. At 5% or less, it becomes extremely unlikely. Size first, leverage second.
Losing streaks are not bad luck, they're math
Take the simplest case: every bet is a coin flip, and each bet risks a fixed slice of your starting budget. How likely is a losing streak long enough to use up the whole budget?
| Risk per bet | Losses in a row to go broke | Chance within 100 bets | Chance within 500 bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 5 | 81% | ~100% |
| 10% | 10 | 4.4% | 21% |
| 5% | 20 | <0.01% | 0.02% |
Computed for 50/50 bets with a fixed bet size, counting only a single unbroken losing streak. Real results are worse once fees are included, because fees make each bet slightly less than a coin flip.
Five losses in a row on coin flips happens all the time. If five losses empties your account, you're not managing risk, you're waiting for the streak.
A simple sizing rule
- Set a budget you're fully prepared to lose. That's your bankroll. Don't top it up after losses.
- Risk 2–5% of it per bet. With a $200 budget, that's $4–$10 per bet.
- Then pick leverage based on how long you'll hold, using our leverage rule of thumb.
- Recalculate after big swings. If the budget drops to $150, 5% is now $7.50, not $10.
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On Moon your wager is your maximum loss. So sizing is simple: the amount you type in the wager box is your risk. No margin math. If your rule is 5% of a $200 budget, you type $10 and that's the most that bet can cost (plus the 1% opening fee).
Mistakes that break sizing
- Doubling after a loss. It turns a normal streak into a disaster. Each bet should be sized from the current budget, not from the last result.
- "One big bet to win it back." That's the same thing with extra steps.
- Many open bets in the same direction. Five $10 bets on BTC Up are really one $50 bet. Count them together.
- Raising leverage instead of size. It feels smaller but just brings your max loss price closer.
The honest part
Good sizing doesn't create an edge. With fees on every bet, the long-run expectation of random bets is negative. Sizing just keeps losses slow and predictable so the money lasts as long as the entertainment does. If you notice yourself chasing losses, stop and take a break; free confidential help is available at gamblingtherapy.org.
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